California lockdown again
The rumor mill doesn’t rest or respect social distancing, it seems, as it runs off the rails with whispers that Tesla may be landing its next factory in Texas. So we all need to steel ourselves for doing this at least up until 1 June and potentially longer.Will Austin be the next landing spot for a Tesla factory? Vaccination would be a huge game-changer, but that looks 12 months away or more. But under that scenario, I absolutely guarantee a fall wave, a return. It’s also possible we’ll open the lockdown too soon, but just catch a lucky bounce on the seasonal effects. I don’t think it’s especially likely, but I don’t rule it out. There’s some possibility that we’ll catch a break with seasonality effects – that it’s just less transmissible in the summertime. If we don’t have some level of herd immunity, it will generate a second wave, because the virus is still out there in pockets. This virus isn’t just going to vanish under lockdown and then we can all just come out. If these antibodies aren’t widespread, then ending the lockdown is just going to bring back another wave. Everyone is hoping that that number is higher than we realize, that there’s way more people who have already had it and have recovered. We want to do serosurveys that are scientific samples of the California population, because there’s this elusive number of people who have already had it, asymptomatically. That’s going to require serological testing – looking for antibodies in the state’s population. So how does California decide to start to reopen after we think we’ve hit a peak? It’s really too early to say that when you see cases go down, that that means all clear to end the lockdown. So the low in cases we see under a better and better adherence to a lockdown – that may be a mirage, not an oasis.
And although there could be declining cases in the midst of a six-week or longer lockdown, after the lockdown ends, cases could go up again.
If cases peak in mid-May, that doesn’t mean the lockdown ends. We have a slightly less severe order here, and they’re saying, ‘We don’t want anyone who needs groceries not to get them.’ They’re not saying we have to hunker down for the next eight weeks, but they would like to nip this little uptick in the bud. They’re thinking ‘Well, how can we improve the lockdown?’ In Italy, police were enforcing the lockdown. LA county officials are seeing an uptick in cases that is making them anxious. Why do they think this week will be so bad? In Los Angeles county, where there are more than 6,000 cases, officials have urged residents to avoid the grocery store this week, if possible. There’s also a desire not to call the peak too soon and potentially give people false hope. We’re still seeing increasing numbers statewide every day, so we can’t predict that it’s going to end a week from now. So you have to do a reality check on the math. And transmissions kept happening, for example every time there were weekends when people disregarded the order. A whole bunch of exposures take five to seven days to work out. Social distancing works, but it takes a while to bite. California has been under statewide social distancing for three weeks. Why do state officials now believe the peak will occur in mid to late May? Read more Earlier projections estimated California would see its peak in mid-April.